НОВИЙ ПІДХІД І МІКРОСИСТЕМНА ТЕХНОЛОГІЯ ВДОСКОНАЛЕНОГО НЕЛІНІЙНОГО АНАЛІЗУ І МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ХАОТИЧНОЇ ДИНАМІКИ КОНЦЕНТРАЦІЙ РАДІОНУКЛИДІВ У НАВКОЛИШНЬОМУ СЕРЕДОВИЩУ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18524/1815-7459.2017.3.111406Ключові слова:
динаміка концентрацій радіонуклідів, нові математичні моделі, нові мікросистемні технології, аналіз та прогнозування часових рядівАнотація
Вперше ми представляємо удосконалений математичний формалізм та нову мікросистемну технологію для аналізу, моделювання та прогнозування динаміки радіоактивності навколишнього середовища в цілому та хаотичних часових рядів, зокрема динаміки радіонуклідів. Наведені якісний та кількісний підхід до проблеми аналізу часової динаміки радіоактивності у навколишньому середовищу, реконструкції фазового простору з використанням методів алгоритму кореляційної розмірності, помилкових сусідніх точок, ефективний підхід до визначення динамічних інваріантів хаотичної системи, в тому числі глобальних показників Ляпунова, розмірності Каплана-Йорка, ентропії Колмогорова тощо. Прогнозний блок містить нові (в теорії динаміки радіоактивності навколишнього середовища та охорону навколишнього середовища) методи та алгоритми нелінійного прогнозування, у т.ч. методи прогнозування траєкторій та моделювання нейронних мереж. Як ілюстрація, представлені перші дані аналізу часових рядів для порової активності радону і вказано на наявність елементів детермінистичного хаосу.Посилання
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