DOI: https://doi.org/10.18524/1815-7459.2017.3.111408

НОВИЙ ПІДХІД І МІКРОСИСТЕМНА ТЕХНОЛОГІЯ ВДОСКОНАЛЕНОГО АНАЛІЗУ І ПРОГНОЗУ ЧАСОВОЇ ДИНАМІКИ КОНЦЕНТРАЦІЙ ЗАБРУДНЮЮЧИХ РЕЧОВИН В АТМОСФЕРІ ПРОМИСЛОВИХ МІСТ

Yu. Ya. Bunyakova, A. V. Glushkov, O. Yu. Khetselius, A. V. Ignatenko, V. V. Buyadzhi, N. Bykowszczenko

Анотація


.Представлені результати вдосконаленого аналізу, моделювання і прогнозування часової динаміки концентрацій забруднюючих речовин (двоокису азоту) в атмосфері промислових міст (Одеса, Україна, Гданськ, Польща) з використанням комплексу нових моделей і нової мікросистемної технології. Застосовані методика нелінійного аналізу, теорія хаосу і методи теорії динамічних систем. Для аналізу виміряних часових періодів концентрацій діоксиду азоту фазовий простір системи було реконструйовано методом затримок. З метою виконання удосконаленого аналізу використовуються метод взаємної інформації, алгоритм кореляційного інтеграла, алгоритм помилкових найближчих сусідів, аналіз на основі показників Ляпунова і метод сурогатних даних. Метод кореляційної розмірності дозволив виявити дивний атрактор з низькою фрактальної розмірністю. Статистична значимість результатів була підтверджена тестуванням сурогатних даних. В рамках вдосконаленого підходу чисельно досліджена хаотична поведінка часових рядів концентрації двоокису азоту на декількох сайтах в містах Одеса (Україна) і Гданськ (Польща), розраховані показники Ляпунова, розмірності Каплана-Йорка і ентропія Колмогорова. Вдосконалений підхід природно підтвердив існування детермінистичного хаосу в досліджуваній системі. Запропоновано новий ефективний метод коротко-і середньотермінового прогнозування часової динаміки флуктуацій концентрацій забруднюючих атмосферу речовин на прикладі двоокису азоту

Ключові слова


нові математичні моделі; нові мікросистемні технології; антропогенний вплив; флуктуації атмосферних забруднювачів; аналіз та прогнозування часових рядів

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Посилання


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